As 2025 began with high expectations, the cryptocurrency markets have come under intense pressure approaching the final days of the first quarter. If a strong rally is not experienced in the next few days, this quarter may go down as one of the worst-performing Q1s in recent years for major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum (ETH) has declined by 37.98% so far in Q1 2025. This marks the worst first-quarter performance since 2018, when it had dropped by 46.61%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 6.49% decline this quarter, its poorest Q1 result since 2020, when it saw a 10.83% drop.

Historically, this outcome is particularly striking. Since 2017, Ethereum has averaged 78.23% gains in Q1, while Bitcoin has averaged 51.62% gains since 2013. Hence, the current downturn is viewed as a significant deviation from historical trends.

According to Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal, a sharp rally toward the end of the quarter appears unlikely. Hundal stated that the market is navigating through a period of uncertainty, largely influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. It has been suggested that a clearer picture may not emerge until mid-April.
While recent economic data signals strength in the global economy, the crypto markets have seemingly failed to reflect these positive indicators. This indicates a cautious stance among investors regarding macro-level developments.

Despite the negative sentiment, some commentators remain optimistic about the coming weeks. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) dated March 19, Colin Talks Crypto suggested that Bitcoin’s next major breakout may begin around April 30. Similarly, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated earlier this month that there is over a 50% chance Bitcoin will hit an all-time high before the end of June.

These perspectives reflect the persistence of bullish narratives within the market. However, for such expectations to materialize, macroeconomic clarity and technical breakouts above key resistance levels will be essential.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,558, while Ethereum is at $2,059. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has risen by 5.08% and Ethereum by 5.88%. Nonetheless, these gains remain insufficient to offset earlier losses.

Additionally, the ETH/BTC ratio-a measure of Ethereum’s strength relative to Bitcoin-has reached a notable low. According to TradingView data, the ratio currently stands at 0.2348, its lowest level since May 2020. This highlights Ethereum’s significant underperformance relative to Bitcoin.

Total market capitalization has also declined. As per CoinMarketCap data, the overall crypto market cap has dropped by 11.65% since January 1, now standing at approximately $2.88 trillion.
This drop has also affected investor sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 47 (“Neutral”) as of March 26. This indicates that traders are currently in a state of indecision, neither overly optimistic nor fearful.

If the U.S. administration fails to provide clarity on economic policies by mid-April, the sideways-to-bearish trend may continue in the crypto markets. However, if the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, or if Trump’s tariff strategies become clearer, a new rally may be ignited for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Moreover, with the Bitcoin halving event approaching, there are growing expectations that prices could rally toward $100,000 by the end of June. In such a scenario, Ethereum might also regain ground and surpass $3,000.

The first quarter of 2025 appears to be shaping up as one of the worst historical periods for Bitcoin and Ethereum, especially considering Ethereum’s nearly 38% drop. The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, tariff concerns, and lack of policy clarity on interest rates has led to a market that is struggling to find direction.

Nonetheless, several analysts suggest that a rally may begin as early as late April. It is therefore essential for investors to remain cautious and keep a close eye on developments.
The ability of the crypto market to recover in Q2 will largely depend on how quickly these uncertainties are resolved. During this period, risk management and portfolio diversification should remain top priorities for investors.